16 Feb 2016
Stay bearish NZD as inflation expectations fall to lowest since 1994 - BNPP
Research Team at BNP Paribas, suggests that the RBNZ’s quarterly inflation expectations survey showed the outlook for inflation on a two-year horizon slowed sharply to 1.63% from 1.85%, the lowest level since 1994.
Key Quotes
“Q4 retail sales also came in weaker at 1.2% q/q versus expectations for a 1.5% print. We think NZDUSD can sustain a break below 0.6600 on the back of the releases, noting STEER™ also signals NZDUSD is overbought with short-term fair value currently at 0.6494.
The global dairy trade dairy auction is later today and if we see a weaker than expected number NZDUSD will likely converge closer to its STEER. Elsewhere in the commodity bloc, the RBA’s February meeting minutes yielded few surprises, demonstrating a clear easing bias but little sense of an imminent move unless conditions deteriorate severely.
This suggests the probability of easing at the 1 March meeting is very low, but this is already reflected in market pricing, and we think there is considerable scope for markets to price more easing for later in the year.”
Key Quotes
“Q4 retail sales also came in weaker at 1.2% q/q versus expectations for a 1.5% print. We think NZDUSD can sustain a break below 0.6600 on the back of the releases, noting STEER™ also signals NZDUSD is overbought with short-term fair value currently at 0.6494.
The global dairy trade dairy auction is later today and if we see a weaker than expected number NZDUSD will likely converge closer to its STEER. Elsewhere in the commodity bloc, the RBA’s February meeting minutes yielded few surprises, demonstrating a clear easing bias but little sense of an imminent move unless conditions deteriorate severely.
This suggests the probability of easing at the 1 March meeting is very low, but this is already reflected in market pricing, and we think there is considerable scope for markets to price more easing for later in the year.”