11 Nov 2013
Flash: Accumulation of net EUR longs reduced dramatically - TDS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The CFTC has finally caught up on all the delayed data due to the US shutdown with the release of positioning data for the week through Nov 5th, which shows interesting developments, according to the FX team at TD Securities.
Key Quotes
"In a broad sense, activity remains low, with total FX bets on the IMM amounting to 175k contracts this week, about half the level of commitments seen through H1 this year. Secondly, the market is effectively long USD on aggregate again, returning the market to a bullish USD bias overall for the first time since September."
"In more specific terms, the EUR saw the biggest overall change in positioning in the latest week, with the recent accumulation of net EUR longs reduced dramatically. In fact, net EUR shorts covered around half the positions that were in place in the prior week, taking the net exposure to 33.1k contracts from 70.6k in the October 29th week. No one rings a bell at the top of a market but relative extremes in positioning can provide some warning that a market may be stretched, as recent events here show."
"Elsewhere, investors were happy to boost net JPY short exposure, lifting the bearish JPY bet more than 10k contracts on the week to –73.7k. Net CHF longs were reduced somewhat to +8k, from +11.4k, meanwhile. A small net GBP long of 10k in the prior week turned into a smaller net GBP short of just –2.3k positions this week."
"The market extended short positions on the CAD in net terms to –18k (from –15.3k last week) and modestly lifted net short AUD positions to –25k (-23.1k). Net NZD longs were little changed at +9.7k (+10.6k last)."
Key Quotes
"In a broad sense, activity remains low, with total FX bets on the IMM amounting to 175k contracts this week, about half the level of commitments seen through H1 this year. Secondly, the market is effectively long USD on aggregate again, returning the market to a bullish USD bias overall for the first time since September."
"In more specific terms, the EUR saw the biggest overall change in positioning in the latest week, with the recent accumulation of net EUR longs reduced dramatically. In fact, net EUR shorts covered around half the positions that were in place in the prior week, taking the net exposure to 33.1k contracts from 70.6k in the October 29th week. No one rings a bell at the top of a market but relative extremes in positioning can provide some warning that a market may be stretched, as recent events here show."
"Elsewhere, investors were happy to boost net JPY short exposure, lifting the bearish JPY bet more than 10k contracts on the week to –73.7k. Net CHF longs were reduced somewhat to +8k, from +11.4k, meanwhile. A small net GBP long of 10k in the prior week turned into a smaller net GBP short of just –2.3k positions this week."
"The market extended short positions on the CAD in net terms to –18k (from –15.3k last week) and modestly lifted net short AUD positions to –25k (-23.1k). Net NZD longs were little changed at +9.7k (+10.6k last)."