14 Jan 2016
S&P 500: Expecting a 75% drop back below 666 - SocGen
FXStreet (Bali) - Albert Edwards, Societe Generale's uber-bear, has released his latest Global Strategy Weekly, calling for a 75% fall in the S&P 500 back below 666.
Key Quotes
I believe the Fed and its promiscuous fraternity of central banks have created the conditions for another debacle every bit as large as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. I believe the events we now see unfolding will drive us back into global recession. I have long believed that 30y US bond yields would converge with Japan, just as Germany has now done.
But a key part of my Ice Age thesis is that the US equity market remains in a valuation bear market that did not fully play itself out in March 2009, when the S&P touched the 666 level, and we will see new lows.
In valuation terms the bear market was not completed in 2009 and indeed after only two recessions there was no reason to expect it to have been completed
If I am right and we have just seen a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, then the next recession will spell real trouble for investors ill-prepared for equity valuations to fall to new lows.
If I am right, the S&P would fall to 550, a 75% decline from the recent 2100 peak. That obviously will be a catastrophe for the economy via the wealth effect and all the Feds QE hard work will turn dust.
That is why I believe the Fed will fight the next bear market with every weapon available including deeply negative Fed Funds rates in addition to more QE. Indeed, negative policy rates will become ubiquitous.
Key Quotes
I believe the Fed and its promiscuous fraternity of central banks have created the conditions for another debacle every bit as large as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. I believe the events we now see unfolding will drive us back into global recession. I have long believed that 30y US bond yields would converge with Japan, just as Germany has now done.
But a key part of my Ice Age thesis is that the US equity market remains in a valuation bear market that did not fully play itself out in March 2009, when the S&P touched the 666 level, and we will see new lows.
In valuation terms the bear market was not completed in 2009 and indeed after only two recessions there was no reason to expect it to have been completed
If I am right and we have just seen a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, then the next recession will spell real trouble for investors ill-prepared for equity valuations to fall to new lows.
If I am right, the S&P would fall to 550, a 75% decline from the recent 2100 peak. That obviously will be a catastrophe for the economy via the wealth effect and all the Feds QE hard work will turn dust.
That is why I believe the Fed will fight the next bear market with every weapon available including deeply negative Fed Funds rates in addition to more QE. Indeed, negative policy rates will become ubiquitous.