20 Nov 2015
USD/CNY outlook for day ahead - Westpac
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation noted that Reuters cited IMF sources claiming that the yuan’s weighting in the SDR (special drawing rights) reserve currency would be lower than previously indicated.
Key Quotes:
"Earlier discussion had been of 14-16%, based on CNY’s substantial role in global trade. But the sources indicated there could be greater emphasis on financial flows, which are lighter for CNY given restrictions on capital movements and its lack of 24 hour trading. A weighting nearer 10% is being suggested.
Regarding the impact of the inclusion of CNY in SDR on other currencies, we expect central banks to mostly adjust their SDR holdings (which are only a small fraction of global reserves) according to the new weights. We disagree with suggestions that AUD holdings will be cut to make way for CNY. While AUD is a good proxy for Chinese growth momentum, CNY has a poor correlation with AUD and is therefore not an easy substitute. Indeed CNY has a poor correlation with China’s economy.
USD/CNY of course tumbled at the open of spot trade Thursday on the surprisingly low fixing rate. The pair was steady for much of the day before a late rally to close CFETS at 6.3840. Broad USD weakness points to the lower fixing that yesterday’s surprise indicates is China’s policy preference. This suggests a midpoint today in the high 6.37s, presumably at least a little below Thursday’s 6.3791."
Key Quotes:
"Earlier discussion had been of 14-16%, based on CNY’s substantial role in global trade. But the sources indicated there could be greater emphasis on financial flows, which are lighter for CNY given restrictions on capital movements and its lack of 24 hour trading. A weighting nearer 10% is being suggested.
Regarding the impact of the inclusion of CNY in SDR on other currencies, we expect central banks to mostly adjust their SDR holdings (which are only a small fraction of global reserves) according to the new weights. We disagree with suggestions that AUD holdings will be cut to make way for CNY. While AUD is a good proxy for Chinese growth momentum, CNY has a poor correlation with AUD and is therefore not an easy substitute. Indeed CNY has a poor correlation with China’s economy.
USD/CNY of course tumbled at the open of spot trade Thursday on the surprisingly low fixing rate. The pair was steady for much of the day before a late rally to close CFETS at 6.3840. Broad USD weakness points to the lower fixing that yesterday’s surprise indicates is China’s policy preference. This suggests a midpoint today in the high 6.37s, presumably at least a little below Thursday’s 6.3791."