11 Nov 2015
Key events ahead - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the key events for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
"Today we have already seen a healthy 3.9% rise in Aussie consumer confidence, which will be welcome to the RBA. However, that is likely to be overshadowed by a huge package of Chinese data, encompassing retail sales (seen 10.9% y-o-y), industrial production (seen 5.8% y-o-y), and fixed asset investment (seen 10.2% y-o-y). Given we’ve already had exports (soft) and inflation (soft) this month, a further set of weak numbers today would turn market thoughts to how long it will be until we see the next PBoC rate cut and RRR cut in tandem. That may well boost equities (Ding ding ding! “Woof! Woof! Woof!”) but as I have stressed regularly, it will also underline that these moves don’t actually seem to be working in the way they should; otherwise, after six rate cuts in just over a year, the y-o-y trend should be up, not down. Of course, that lack of official success is relative: any economy other than China would be delighted with a set of data of that strength.
Then we see UK unemployment (consensus: an unchanged 2.3% rate, or 5.4% on the ILO measure).
During the day we also hear from the ECB’s Hansson (if only he was musing on the Bank of Portugal one could have the delightful headline: “Mmm, BoP...”) as well as Draghi and Constancio. The BoE is also out in force with Carney, Bailey, Shafik and Cunliffe all speaking.
On which note, a journalist asked me yesterday if it would be preferable if the PBoC increased the frequency and transparency of its market communications. I agreed that it would. However, I also pointed out that we get nothing but communication from Western central banks and yet we – and they (?) - still have no real idea where we are heading!"
Key Quotes:
"Today we have already seen a healthy 3.9% rise in Aussie consumer confidence, which will be welcome to the RBA. However, that is likely to be overshadowed by a huge package of Chinese data, encompassing retail sales (seen 10.9% y-o-y), industrial production (seen 5.8% y-o-y), and fixed asset investment (seen 10.2% y-o-y). Given we’ve already had exports (soft) and inflation (soft) this month, a further set of weak numbers today would turn market thoughts to how long it will be until we see the next PBoC rate cut and RRR cut in tandem. That may well boost equities (Ding ding ding! “Woof! Woof! Woof!”) but as I have stressed regularly, it will also underline that these moves don’t actually seem to be working in the way they should; otherwise, after six rate cuts in just over a year, the y-o-y trend should be up, not down. Of course, that lack of official success is relative: any economy other than China would be delighted with a set of data of that strength.
Then we see UK unemployment (consensus: an unchanged 2.3% rate, or 5.4% on the ILO measure).
During the day we also hear from the ECB’s Hansson (if only he was musing on the Bank of Portugal one could have the delightful headline: “Mmm, BoP...”) as well as Draghi and Constancio. The BoE is also out in force with Carney, Bailey, Shafik and Cunliffe all speaking.
On which note, a journalist asked me yesterday if it would be preferable if the PBoC increased the frequency and transparency of its market communications. I agreed that it would. However, I also pointed out that we get nothing but communication from Western central banks and yet we – and they (?) - still have no real idea where we are heading!"