26 Oct 2015
BoJ meeting likely to be a close call for policy change – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Jim Reid, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank, suggests that a closer call for a change in policy could be this Friday’s BoJ meeting.
Key Quotes
“The most recent Bloomberg survey (run from September 29th to October 2nd) had 15 out of 36 economists (42%) forecasting for the BoJ to ease further through expanding purchases. This was up from 11 economists at the beginning of September. 4 expect the BoJ to go in January 2016 and 1 each in March and April next year, while 13 (or 36%) don’t expect any change to the current stimulus package.”
“It’ll be interesting to see if we get any further surveys this week, particularly post the PBoC. Our economists in Japan maintain their view that an additional easing is unlikely. In their view economic data thus far has not deteriorated to a degree that would justify an additional easing and this week’s data in Japan is unlikely to affect the BoJ’s decision. They do however expect the BoJ to revise down its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation and defer its target date for achieving 2% for the latter from the current H1 FY16.”
Key Quotes
“The most recent Bloomberg survey (run from September 29th to October 2nd) had 15 out of 36 economists (42%) forecasting for the BoJ to ease further through expanding purchases. This was up from 11 economists at the beginning of September. 4 expect the BoJ to go in January 2016 and 1 each in March and April next year, while 13 (or 36%) don’t expect any change to the current stimulus package.”
“It’ll be interesting to see if we get any further surveys this week, particularly post the PBoC. Our economists in Japan maintain their view that an additional easing is unlikely. In their view economic data thus far has not deteriorated to a degree that would justify an additional easing and this week’s data in Japan is unlikely to affect the BoJ’s decision. They do however expect the BoJ to revise down its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation and defer its target date for achieving 2% for the latter from the current H1 FY16.”