14 Jul 2015
Key events for the day ahead - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac Global Strategy Group breaks down the key events for the day ahead, including NAB business surveys in Australia, UK CPI and BoE Carney testimony and US Jun retail sales.
Key Quotes
"Australia Jun NAB business survey will be released at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. Both conditions and confidence jumped up to 7 in May following the budget and RBA rate cut. We will watch to see if the weakness in AIG Jun PMI shows through."
"Singapore Q2 advance GDP will be released at 10am Syd/9am local. Consensus is for 2.4%y/y growth from 2.6% in Q1. Bank Indonesia is expected by all forecasters to keep rates at 7.5%. The BI governor has said that the central bank will keep monetary policy tight to avoid weakening of the currency."
"UK Jun CPI is forecast to tick down to flat y/y. The Bank of England has already said it is willing to overlook what it sees as temporary factors dampening inflation. Core inflation meanwhile is expected to remain around 0.9%y/y. The Germany Jul ZEW investor survey is very likely to show the lack of resolution to Greece weighing on sentiment. There are some reports that leftwing rebels in the ruling party will be replaced at today’s Syriza parliamentary group meeting. Greece has until Wednesday to pass yesterday’s agreement in parliament."
"US Jun retail sales is expected to come in weaker, with consensus at 0.3%m/m. The previous headline print was 1.2%. The FOMC frequently noted its disappointment throughout 2015 that the decline in petrol prices did not translate into increased discretionary spending despite strong confidence and a favourable outlook towards incomes. Core retail spending (ex autos & gas) should this month rise just above headline at 0.4%. We will also see Jun NFIB small business survey and Jun business inventories. Kansas City Fed president George (hawk and non-voter) will speak on the economy and monetary policy after NY close."
Key Quotes
"Australia Jun NAB business survey will be released at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. Both conditions and confidence jumped up to 7 in May following the budget and RBA rate cut. We will watch to see if the weakness in AIG Jun PMI shows through."
"Singapore Q2 advance GDP will be released at 10am Syd/9am local. Consensus is for 2.4%y/y growth from 2.6% in Q1. Bank Indonesia is expected by all forecasters to keep rates at 7.5%. The BI governor has said that the central bank will keep monetary policy tight to avoid weakening of the currency."
"UK Jun CPI is forecast to tick down to flat y/y. The Bank of England has already said it is willing to overlook what it sees as temporary factors dampening inflation. Core inflation meanwhile is expected to remain around 0.9%y/y. The Germany Jul ZEW investor survey is very likely to show the lack of resolution to Greece weighing on sentiment. There are some reports that leftwing rebels in the ruling party will be replaced at today’s Syriza parliamentary group meeting. Greece has until Wednesday to pass yesterday’s agreement in parliament."
"US Jun retail sales is expected to come in weaker, with consensus at 0.3%m/m. The previous headline print was 1.2%. The FOMC frequently noted its disappointment throughout 2015 that the decline in petrol prices did not translate into increased discretionary spending despite strong confidence and a favourable outlook towards incomes. Core retail spending (ex autos & gas) should this month rise just above headline at 0.4%. We will also see Jun NFIB small business survey and Jun business inventories. Kansas City Fed president George (hawk and non-voter) will speak on the economy and monetary policy after NY close."