1 May 2015
Tactically bearish on EM FX but the rally is gaining momentum – SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at Societe Generale, maintains a tactical bearish approach on EM FX, and further share their FX exposure in the same.
Key Quotes
“Until uncertainty over US monetary policy is eliminated the backdrop for GEM FX should remain challenging (For now, doom and gloom). Lack of appetite by speculative investors to position for medium term appreciation should continue to mitigate any EM rally.”
“We continue to have a tactically bearish view which we express through long USD risk or relative value trades.”
“Our positioning is concentrated in bearish EMEA exposure - long USD-TRY, USD-ZAR, and USD-ILS. – but also includes long USD-BRL and a directionally bullish dollar trade (owning USD-IDR 3x12 NDF spread) and a defensive relative value position (long INR-IDR 12m NDF).”
Key Quotes
“Until uncertainty over US monetary policy is eliminated the backdrop for GEM FX should remain challenging (For now, doom and gloom). Lack of appetite by speculative investors to position for medium term appreciation should continue to mitigate any EM rally.”
“We continue to have a tactically bearish view which we express through long USD risk or relative value trades.”
“Our positioning is concentrated in bearish EMEA exposure - long USD-TRY, USD-ZAR, and USD-ILS. – but also includes long USD-BRL and a directionally bullish dollar trade (owning USD-IDR 3x12 NDF spread) and a defensive relative value position (long INR-IDR 12m NDF).”