28 Apr 2015
Getting ready for a busy week ahead - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted that the week ahead is littered with event risks and particularly with the release of US GDP (Q1) and the FOMC and BoJ meetings.
Key Quotes:
"Our bias is for the USD to weaken into this week’s events as we see downside risk to GDP relative to the consensus estimate (0.8% vs. 1.0% q/q annualized, mostly weather related) and the Fed’s communique rules out a June hike until signs emerge that the soft-patch in Q1 is temporary. A rebound in the April ISM on Friday is a risk however."
"We do not expect the Bank of Japan to provide additional stimulus this week but we cannot fully rule it out as the activist central bank has a history of surprising."
"Though inflation expectations have improved since QQE, underlying inflation is slipping and media reports have suggested that the inflation target will be pushed out to FY2016. Governor Kuroda recently noted that he will not hesitate to act but he may be compelled to do so to preserve the Bank’s credibility. Several public officials have also called for easing this week."
"Key FOMC members such as Dudley have already having expressed some doubt over an early reacceleration in growth, so we would be positioned for a dovish tone."
"We still maintain that the Fed will hike this year, with September being the earliest date for liftoff."
Key Quotes:
"Our bias is for the USD to weaken into this week’s events as we see downside risk to GDP relative to the consensus estimate (0.8% vs. 1.0% q/q annualized, mostly weather related) and the Fed’s communique rules out a June hike until signs emerge that the soft-patch in Q1 is temporary. A rebound in the April ISM on Friday is a risk however."
"We do not expect the Bank of Japan to provide additional stimulus this week but we cannot fully rule it out as the activist central bank has a history of surprising."
"Though inflation expectations have improved since QQE, underlying inflation is slipping and media reports have suggested that the inflation target will be pushed out to FY2016. Governor Kuroda recently noted that he will not hesitate to act but he may be compelled to do so to preserve the Bank’s credibility. Several public officials have also called for easing this week."
"Key FOMC members such as Dudley have already having expressed some doubt over an early reacceleration in growth, so we would be positioned for a dovish tone."
"We still maintain that the Fed will hike this year, with September being the earliest date for liftoff."