23 Mar 2015
Key events ahead – US CPI and Poloz’s speech – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team previews the key events and data releases in this week in US and Canada – US CPI, Yellen’s speech on Friday and Bank of Canada Governor Poloz’s speech.
Key Quotes
“In North America, US markets will be watching tomorrow’s CPI data that much more closely now that the Fed said explicitly that it will only be appropriate to raise the fed funds rate when it is “reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term”.”
“Markets are looking for headline CPI to hold steady -0.1% Y/Y and for core CPI to edge a tenth higher to 1.7% Y/Y, but TD is looking for a 1.6% reading for core, and we think that any surprises may have an outsized market impact.”
“Fed Chair Yellen is also speaking on Friday, which will give her the chance to clarify any message that she thinks may have been misinterpreted after last week’s FOMC announcement.”
“In Canada, the focus will be on Bank of Canada chatter, with a speech from Governor Poloz on Thursday. In Poloz's last appearance he said that the BoC would view disappointing Q1 growth as evidence of a "quicker impact" from the oil shock, rather than a larger one. Sure enough, the Jan data has been extremely soft, and Feb probably won't be any better.”
“So this speech will test that resolve, and we’ll be looking for any hints that the BoC may be thinking about cutting further in April or later in Q2.”
Key Quotes
“In North America, US markets will be watching tomorrow’s CPI data that much more closely now that the Fed said explicitly that it will only be appropriate to raise the fed funds rate when it is “reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term”.”
“Markets are looking for headline CPI to hold steady -0.1% Y/Y and for core CPI to edge a tenth higher to 1.7% Y/Y, but TD is looking for a 1.6% reading for core, and we think that any surprises may have an outsized market impact.”
“Fed Chair Yellen is also speaking on Friday, which will give her the chance to clarify any message that she thinks may have been misinterpreted after last week’s FOMC announcement.”
“In Canada, the focus will be on Bank of Canada chatter, with a speech from Governor Poloz on Thursday. In Poloz's last appearance he said that the BoC would view disappointing Q1 growth as evidence of a "quicker impact" from the oil shock, rather than a larger one. Sure enough, the Jan data has been extremely soft, and Feb probably won't be any better.”
“So this speech will test that resolve, and we’ll be looking for any hints that the BoC may be thinking about cutting further in April or later in Q2.”