17 Feb 2015
Revising down US 2015 GDP forecast – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Signe Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank explains that with private consumption growth set to lower in 2015, US GDP in 2015 and 2016 might grow to 3.0% and (previous forecast 3.2%) 2.8% (previous forecast 2.9%) respectively.
Key Quotes
“We have based our forecast for GDP growth this year on the assumption that the significant lift to real disposable incomes from lower energy prices and strong job growth would result in a surge in private consumption growth early this year.”
“However, personal spending data for December and the latest January retail sales data suggest that consumer behaviour is currently extraordinarily cautious.”
“We have […] lowered our estimate of private consumption growth in Q1 to 3.4% q/q AR from 4.6% but keep the remaining quarters unchanged at 4.1% in Q2, 3.0% in Q3 and 2.8% in Q4.”
“recent data on US inventories, trade and investments indicates a significant downward revision to Q4 GDP data. We now expect Q4 GDP growth at 1.8% q/q annualised compared to the latest release showing growth of 2.6%. Momentum in the economy was thus somewhat slower than expected into this year.”
“Summing up, we revise overall GDP growth in 2015 down to 3.0% in 2015 (from 3.2%) and to 2.5% in 2016 (from 2.7%). The profile is somewhat weaker in H1 with growth at 2.8% (compared to 2.9%) but unchanged in H2 at 2.6%.”
Key Quotes
“We have based our forecast for GDP growth this year on the assumption that the significant lift to real disposable incomes from lower energy prices and strong job growth would result in a surge in private consumption growth early this year.”
“However, personal spending data for December and the latest January retail sales data suggest that consumer behaviour is currently extraordinarily cautious.”
“We have […] lowered our estimate of private consumption growth in Q1 to 3.4% q/q AR from 4.6% but keep the remaining quarters unchanged at 4.1% in Q2, 3.0% in Q3 and 2.8% in Q4.”
“recent data on US inventories, trade and investments indicates a significant downward revision to Q4 GDP data. We now expect Q4 GDP growth at 1.8% q/q annualised compared to the latest release showing growth of 2.6%. Momentum in the economy was thus somewhat slower than expected into this year.”
“Summing up, we revise overall GDP growth in 2015 down to 3.0% in 2015 (from 3.2%) and to 2.5% in 2016 (from 2.7%). The profile is somewhat weaker in H1 with growth at 2.8% (compared to 2.9%) but unchanged in H2 at 2.6%.”