30 Jan 2015
Key events today: Eurozone CPI, US GDP – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team previews the key events today, expecting eurozone CPI to decline to -0.6% yoy and US GDP to rise to 3.4% qoq annualised.
Key Quotes
“The new Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will meet with Jeroen Dijsselbloem who heads the euro-area finance minister group. The result of the meeting will be watched closely as markets fret over a potential confrontation between Greece and the Troika.”
“Tsipras and finance minister Varoufakis have tried to calm markets in the past days by saying that there will not be a duel between Greece and the EU and that the aim is to reach 'a viable, fair, mutually beneficial solution'.”
“Another key focus will be the US employment cost index for Q4. The low print for hourly earnings in the December employment report has reinforced focus on US wage growth. The employment cost index is a more reliable indicator, though, and has been moving higher in the past quarters.”
“If the employment cost index does not show the same decline in wage growth as the hourly earnings, we may see a negative reaction in the bond market.”
“The preliminary euro inflation for January is expected to fall deeper into negative territory to -0.6% y/y after German inflation data yesterday surprised to the downside. The decline is mainly driven by lower energy prices.”
“Core inflation is expected to stay unchanged for the third month in a row at the historical low of 0.7% y/y. Should it decline further it will highlight ECB's challenge to get inflation back towards the 'just below 2%' target.”
“US GDP is likely to show a decent rise of 3.4% q/q annualised. This will mainly be pulled by a robust 4.4% q/q annualised rise in private consumption, whereas corporate investments and housing have likely been soft in Q4.”
Key Quotes
“The new Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will meet with Jeroen Dijsselbloem who heads the euro-area finance minister group. The result of the meeting will be watched closely as markets fret over a potential confrontation between Greece and the Troika.”
“Tsipras and finance minister Varoufakis have tried to calm markets in the past days by saying that there will not be a duel between Greece and the EU and that the aim is to reach 'a viable, fair, mutually beneficial solution'.”
“Another key focus will be the US employment cost index for Q4. The low print for hourly earnings in the December employment report has reinforced focus on US wage growth. The employment cost index is a more reliable indicator, though, and has been moving higher in the past quarters.”
“If the employment cost index does not show the same decline in wage growth as the hourly earnings, we may see a negative reaction in the bond market.”
“The preliminary euro inflation for January is expected to fall deeper into negative territory to -0.6% y/y after German inflation data yesterday surprised to the downside. The decline is mainly driven by lower energy prices.”
“Core inflation is expected to stay unchanged for the third month in a row at the historical low of 0.7% y/y. Should it decline further it will highlight ECB's challenge to get inflation back towards the 'just below 2%' target.”
“US GDP is likely to show a decent rise of 3.4% q/q annualised. This will mainly be pulled by a robust 4.4% q/q annualised rise in private consumption, whereas corporate investments and housing have likely been soft in Q4.”