16 Jan 2015
Australia might see a negative outcome in Q1 2015 CPI print – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Team expects falling petrol prices will have a larger impact on Australia’s Q1 CPI print, anticipating it to show a small negative outcome, and further forecast Q4-14 CPI to show a 0.3%qoq print.
Key Quotes
“Our final pick for Australia’s Q4-14 CPI is for a 0.3%qoq headline outturn, and we expect the average of the RBA core measures to rise 0.5%qoq. This is in line with our preliminary CPI forecast released on 21 November. While petrol prices have fallen more since then, we expect this to have been offset somewhat by rises in fruit and vegetable prices through the second half of the quarter. We expect to see a larger impact from the recent fall in petrol prices in the CPI for Q1-15, with our very early expectation for the Q1 headline CPI a small negative outcome.”
Key Quotes
“Our final pick for Australia’s Q4-14 CPI is for a 0.3%qoq headline outturn, and we expect the average of the RBA core measures to rise 0.5%qoq. This is in line with our preliminary CPI forecast released on 21 November. While petrol prices have fallen more since then, we expect this to have been offset somewhat by rises in fruit and vegetable prices through the second half of the quarter. We expect to see a larger impact from the recent fall in petrol prices in the CPI for Q1-15, with our very early expectation for the Q1 headline CPI a small negative outcome.”