9 Jan 2015
Nonfarm Payrolls reveal poor wages - SG
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Kit Juckes, head of foreign exchange research at Societe Generale SA summarised the Nonfarm Payrolls:
Key Quotes:
"NFP is summarised for me by 1) y/y employment growth of 2.15% is almost hitting the peak of the last cycle and even with pathetic post-millennium productivity, enough to give GDP an upside bias. 2) The 5.6% unemployment rate is still distorted by a falling participation rate and no-one really knows what to make of it. Nairu is at best badly in need of a makeover and at worst, has gone the way of the Dodo. And 3) The early survey period may partly explain the softness of the wage data but even so, they're very soft in both headline (AHE) series at 1.7% y/y and on the older, non-supervisory series which fell from 2.2 to 1.6% y/y."
"Globalisation/technology are wreaking havoc on the labour market. And the FOMC discussion about what to do with monetary policy when growth is OK, and inflation is dead, will be the big focus as we approach the FOMC on Jan 28."
Key Quotes:
"NFP is summarised for me by 1) y/y employment growth of 2.15% is almost hitting the peak of the last cycle and even with pathetic post-millennium productivity, enough to give GDP an upside bias. 2) The 5.6% unemployment rate is still distorted by a falling participation rate and no-one really knows what to make of it. Nairu is at best badly in need of a makeover and at worst, has gone the way of the Dodo. And 3) The early survey period may partly explain the softness of the wage data but even so, they're very soft in both headline (AHE) series at 1.7% y/y and on the older, non-supervisory series which fell from 2.2 to 1.6% y/y."
"Globalisation/technology are wreaking havoc on the labour market. And the FOMC discussion about what to do with monetary policy when growth is OK, and inflation is dead, will be the big focus as we approach the FOMC on Jan 28."