1 Dec 2014
USD softens as commodities stabilize – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities team note that USD started the trading week on a soft bounce, as a bounce in commodity prices overnight has guided the FX market so far.
Key Quotes
“The USD has started the trading week on a soft note, as a bounce in commodity prices overnight has percolated into the currency markets.”
“The ECB meeting and US payrolls will be the highlights this week. For the ECB, the focus of the opening statement will be on how much the staff projections for growth and inflation are revised lower, while the Q&A will focus on what further actions the ECB will take to combat low inflation.”
“Speculation surrounding ECB sovereign bond purchases is rife after Draghi and Constâncio’s recent comments, but we have noted before that this week’s meeting would be too early for any concrete announcement. Nonetheless, we still expect EURUSD to trade lower helped by Draghi’s dovish comments.”
“For US nonfarm payrolls we look for a strong print of 270K on Friday, compared with consensus of 228K. The combination of a dovish ECB on Thursday and above-consensus payrolls on Friday should be enough to drive EURUSD lower, likely retesting the cycle lows at 1.2360.”
Key Quotes
“The USD has started the trading week on a soft note, as a bounce in commodity prices overnight has percolated into the currency markets.”
“The ECB meeting and US payrolls will be the highlights this week. For the ECB, the focus of the opening statement will be on how much the staff projections for growth and inflation are revised lower, while the Q&A will focus on what further actions the ECB will take to combat low inflation.”
“Speculation surrounding ECB sovereign bond purchases is rife after Draghi and Constâncio’s recent comments, but we have noted before that this week’s meeting would be too early for any concrete announcement. Nonetheless, we still expect EURUSD to trade lower helped by Draghi’s dovish comments.”
“For US nonfarm payrolls we look for a strong print of 270K on Friday, compared with consensus of 228K. The combination of a dovish ECB on Thursday and above-consensus payrolls on Friday should be enough to drive EURUSD lower, likely retesting the cycle lows at 1.2360.”