Pound could suffer further over the short term if market’s conviction on a June rate cut grows – MUFG

The BoE vote that revealed the two voters for a hike previously abandoning that stance has fuelled renewed GBP selling. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze Pound’s outlook.

BoE shifts a little more toward a first rate cut

BoE left policy rate on hold for fifth consecutive meeting at 5.25%.

The overall message from the statement suggests as before – that returning inflation to target is proceeding but the point of being in a position to ease the monetary stance has not arrived.

The vote did highlight progress with an 8-1 vote as both Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann dropped their votes to hike. That alone justifies some increased probability of an earlier than we expect rate cut in June although whether the BoE ultimately moves in June or August remains a close call. We maintain our view of 100 bps of cuts this year.

The Pound could suffer further over the short term if the market's conviction on a June rate cut grows further and with that the potential extent of rate cuts in total delivered this year.