ECB will not have any scope for rate cuts and the Euro will appreciate – Commerzbank

Economists at Commerzbank analyze Euro’s outlook after no surprises from the ECB on Thursday as far as the market was concerned.

ECB will have to keep interest rates at high levels for a long time

For now, our EUR-positive story has been unable to unfold: that the ECB will not have any scope for rate cuts, that it will therefore have to keep interest rates at high levels for a long time yet and that the Euro will therefore appreciate (at least initially).

However, the market is not yet buying this story. It is far too early yet. For now, falling inflation pressure and the struggling Eurozone economy will seem to confirm the market’s view. It will take patience. How much patience? First of all, inflation developments have to seem very disappointing (from the ECB’s point of view); we haven’t got to that point yet. And we are not likely to reach that point next month either. I only expect the first effects that will be discernible in the EUR exchange rates in Q1/2024.

See: The ECB has no room to cut rates again next year – Commerzbank