GBP/USD: The Pound will still be vulnerable if UK recession risks rise – Rabobank

The Pound has managed to hold onto the position of best-performing G10 currency over the past five days. Economists at Rabobank analyze GBP outlook.

GBP/USD seen slipping to 1.26 on a three-month view

If recession risks are judged by the market to rise, additional BoE rate rises are far less likely to be able to lend GBP support. 

On the assumption that the USD will be well supported in the coming months, we see risk of GBP/USD slipping to 1.26 on a three-month view and falling to 1.20 by the middle of next year. 

We continue to see risks between GBP and the EUR as well balanced and expect more range trading around the EUR/GBP 0.86 area on a one-to-three-month view.