EUR/HUF's journey below 400 is not permanent and will reverse – TDS

In the view of economists at TD Securities, the Forint is too strong with EUR/HUF below 400. They, therefore, expect a sharp move higher in the pair.

May and June will likely be periods of increased EUR/HUF volatility

“We still think that EUR/HUF's journey below 400 is not permanent and will reverse.” 

“May and June will likely be periods of increased EUR/HUF volatility as EU member states will need to extend the current sanctions on Russia related to the invasion of Ukraine. Hungary may use this opportunity to veto the extension unless it also receives part of frozen EU payouts from the Recovery Fund (RF).” 

“The first batch of the RF payouts is due right around June 2023, so another open spat with the EU might be the card Hungary will choose to play.”