EUR/USD: Moderately positive medium-term, not optimistic long-term – Commerzbank

The sceptre of inflation is back. How inflation concerns are affecting EUR/USD this time round? Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, expects the shared currency to struggle in the long-term.

Moderately positive regarding EUR/USD medium-term

“Whereas core inflation is slowly, but more or less steadily falling in the US, it remains on a firmly rising trend in the Eurozone. That means the ECB has to act in a restrictive manner, or has less scope to ease its monetary policy in the foreseeable future. As a result, I remain moderately positive regarding EUR/USD medium-term.”

“Medium to long-term things are looking differently. The USD seems more resilient against the risks of recession than the EUR because the particular structural problems might emerge during times of a recession in Europe. If it became clear that more rapid QT was required in the fight against inflation the ECB might struggle more with these measures than the Fed. These arguments are the reason why medium to long-term I am not optimistic for EUR/USD.”