EUR/SEK to reach 11.20 over the coming months – Danske Bank

Economists at Danske Bank expect EUR/SEK to move higher over the coming months to 11.20 due to weak growth dynamics, relative monetary policy and the Riksbank’s disregard for SEK weakness.

Range-bound near-term, then higher

“We stick to our non-consensus view on the SEK amid weak growth dynamics, especially for Europe, scope for another downturn in global equities and relative monetary policy where the Riksbank is far behind the Fed and treats the SEK with benign neglect. Furthermore, the interest-rate weapon is a double-edged sword for the SEK as too much tightening runs the risk of hurting the housing market and thus scaring away investors from SEK assets. These factors suggest that the EUR/SEK uptrend in 3-6M remains intact.”

“In the 6-12M perspective, the Fed pivot and generally bigger optimism about the global economy may be real and with that a sustainable recovery in risk assets and the SEK.” 

“Forecast: 10.80 (1M), 11.00 (3M), 11.20 (6M), 11.00 (12M).”