US NFP Preview: Headline payrolls to rise by 280K in September – Societe Generale

Analysts at Societe Generale offer their expectations on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls data, which is expected to have a significant market impact.

Key quotes

“We project a 280K gain.”

“The unemployment rate for September is expected to decline to 3.6%.”

“The monthly flows are volatile. If there are no returnees, or if there is a net exodus from the labor force rather than re-entrants, the unemployment rate could drop even more than the 3.6% we project.”

“Wages are expected to rise 0.5% MoM in September. We view the shortfall seen in August, when wages rose 0.3%, as noise in the data rather than the beginning of a new trend.”